Linux企业将以平台供应商角色出现

　　曾几何时，Linux在企业的用途有两个：Web服务器、文件和打印共享服务器。但现在情况已经有了翻天覆地的改变。

　　来自eweek的报道称，在Linux基金会协作高峰会上发言时，IDC负责调研事务的副总裁吉伦（Al Gillen）说，Linux正在快速发展为运行关键任务企业应用软件的服务器核心。这个速度有多快？有数据为证，到2011年时Linux服务器市场将增长到490亿美元。

　　吉伦在发言时说，尽管运行基本负载的Linux服务器会继续增长，但运行数据库、企业资源规划（ERP）、决策支持等负载的Linux服务器的份额会稳步扩大。

　　IDC预计，2006年到2011年间Linux软件支出的年复合增长率将达到 35.7%，包括软件、硬件、相关服务在内的在Linux上的总支出的年复合增长率为24.1%。如果Linux支出继续以IDC预计的速度增长，与 Linux相关的总支出将由2007年的210亿美元增长至2011年的490亿美元。

　　吉伦表示，按这样的增长速度计算，Linux在服务器市场上的份额到2011年时将超过9%，与Linux相关的软件支出将增长到310亿美元，届时总的软件支出将达到3300亿美元。

　　Linux在不同行业的增长速度存在差异。吉伦指出，政府、金融服务、公共服务等领域的客户更可能利用Linux取代现有的Unix服务器。

　　吉伦指出，未来，Windows将继续是Linux长期的竞争对手。尽管在研发层面上有条件地与开放源代码技术合作，但微软在营销和销售上仍然采用了咄咄逼人的战略。

　　另外，吉伦认为，来自开源软件行业，基于Linux的软件应用将是这个行业另外一个高速增长点，这将不仅仅是linux操作系统，还有部署于该系统上的整套中间件、应用服务软件等等。目前提供这些服务的供应商已经开始出现，比如Novell、红帽和Sun，这些公司会提供一整套基于开源软件的企业信息化整体解决方案。这将是开源产业的一个新的发展重点。

　　一个基本的事实是，Linux已经并将继续成为许多企业的命脉。至少说，目前的芝加哥期货交易所做到了，在本次合作峰会上，一位来自芝加哥期货交易所的代表是这么认为的，他说，在目前的芝加哥期货交易所的信息系统中，部署在Linux上的交易系统已经处理了上万亿美金的交易量，还没有出现过问题，还有什么关键业务不能在Linux上跑呢？

　　Austin, Texas--Once upon a time, you found Linux as a server in two places in the enterprise: on the edge, as a Web server, and in the branch office, as a file and print server. That was then. This is now.

　　In a speech at the Linux Foundation Collaboration Summit at the University of Texas Super Computing Center here, IDC Vice President of Research Al Gillen said that Linux is now growing quickly as the heart of mission-critical enterprise application servers. How quickly? Try the Linux server business will grow to $49 billion in 2011.

　　In his speech, Gillen said, "While these basic workload deployments continue to grow in volume, additional workloads, including database, ERP, decision support and general business processing, are steadily advancing their share of total Linux deployments." What this means for Linux is that it quickly is becoming a mission-critical part of business.

　　In terms of dollars and cents, IDC expects to see Linux software spending growing from 2006 to 2011 at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 35.7 percent. The overall spending on Linux, including software, hardware, and services, is increasing over the same period at a CAGR of 24.1 percent. So if this spending continues at the rate IDC expects, the total spending on Linux will grow from 2007's $21 billion in 2007 to $49 billion by 2011.

　　Now, if only the economy were growing at a rate even half of that, there would be no talk of a recession.

　　At this growth rate, Gillen said Linux's share of the total server market "is expected to grow to more than 9 percent by 2011, or $31 billion in Linux-related software revenue in a total market that will grow to $330 billion." As in the past, much of that growth is expected to come at the expense of Unix.

　　Linux's growth is not uniform across different businesses. Gillen noted that "users in verticals such as government, financial services and general services are more likely to move to Linux as a replacement for existing Unix servers."

　　Looking ahead, "Windows continues to present a significant long-term challenge for Linux," said Gillen. At the same time, though, "Microsoft has shifted its approach to both Linux and other open-source technology and today is working both competitively and cooperatively with Linux solutions at a technology and development level. However, the company still takes a highly competitive marketing and sales approach to Linux."

　　Another development IDC sees coming in the next few years that may boost Linux's enterprise server growth even higher is what Gillen calls "software appliances." These are turnkey software stacks "that incorporate operating system functionality along with middleware and other infrastructure software components, and potentially with application software as well." If this happens, this will give vendors with a strong software stack--such as a Novell, Red Hat or Sun--a chance for "higher-volume deployments of Linux, even though it will reduce revenue opportunities for discrete products."

　　The bottom line: Linux is continuing to become the life's blood of many businesses. Or, as in the case of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, an early Linux adopter, it already is. A representative of the Exchange at the Summit said, "We're already doing a trillion dollars of trades on the exchange." What part of mission-critical ready do you not understand?